A parameter estimation method for machine tool reliability analysis using expert judgement Online publication date: Sat, 03-Apr-2010
by Bhupesh Kumar Lad, Makarand S. Kulkarni
International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies (IJDATS), Vol. 2, No. 2, 2010
Abstract: This paper aims at providing a parameter estimation method for the machine tool reliability analysis to overcome the problem of unavailability of a well-defined failure data collection mechanism. It uses the knowledge and experience of maintenance personnel to obtain the parameters of lifetime distribution of the repairable as well as non-repairable components/subassemblies. It is further developed for the cases where the knowledge available with the expert is with reference to the preventive repair/replacement policy used in the field. In case of imperfect repairs, the methodology also helps in estimating the value of restoration factor. The goodness of the proposed methodology at a given accuracy level in expert judgements are tested against the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. It is concluded that the expert judgement method provides a satisfactory alternative to statistical methods when no or very few historical time to failure data points are available.
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