What can we learn from 259 years of shipping cycles?
by Alexander M. Goulielmos
International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics (IJSTL), Vol. 2, No. 2, 2010

Abstract: This paper has been written with the author's mind on the recent world banking crisis. Four million dwt of ships are about to be delivered by 2011. Using a very long time series indeed of 259 years for dry cargo freight rate index, we have tried to identify shipping cycles. We did not spot long waves of an average duration of 54 years known as Kondratieff waves. Medium cycles of ten and 20 years have been located between 1741 and 2007. For this purpose, we used the V statistic due to Einstein in 1905. Previous writers (Hampton, Stopford, Randers and Goluke) without nonlinear econometrics reached the same conclusion. The four-year cycle is a fact detected by us in another paper. We also tried to answer the question of the expected end of this crisis. We have chosen the 20 years duration instead of ten. This led us to 2028. Other cycles were also revealed.

Online publication date: Sun, 10-Jan-2010

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