A note on the importance of the first goal in a National Hockey League game
by Jack Brimberg, W.J. Hurley
International Journal of Operational Research (IJOR), Vol. 6, No. 2, 2009

Abstract: In their pregame assessments of which team will win an important hockey game, TV commentators will often point out the importance of scoring the first goal, suggesting that a team improves its chances of winning considerably by scoring it. In this note, we use some simple probability theory to calculate how a team's chance of winning (and losing) changes after the first goal.

Online publication date: Fri, 19-Jun-2009

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