Towards the fifth Kondratiev upswing: elements of an emerging new growth phase and possible development trajectories Online publication date: Mon, 25-May-2009
by Arnulf Grubler, Helga Nowotny
International Journal of Technology Management (IJTM), Vol. 5, No. 4, 1990
Abstract: This paper takes a long-term view on economic growth from an essentially Schumpeteriam perspective. The authors consider that since the early 1970s we have been witnessing a volatile and turbulent transition towards a new phase of socio-economic development, in which the diffusion of a host of interrelated new technologies, institutions and forms of organization could lead to a renewed period of economic growth and prosperity. They argue that the beginning of such a diffusion phase, in which the ultimate characteristics of the future development trajectory are being shaped, could constitute an opportunity window for reducing the disparities between countries as a result of their different degrees of economic development. They consider in addition that the successful catching-up will depend more on an effective introduction and diffusion of the elements of the emerging new development regime than on a growth model along the trajectories and intensity level of the previous model of development.
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