Supply chain risk management via correlated scenario analysis
by Erhan Deniz, James T. Luxhoj
International Journal of Integrated Supply Management (IJISM), Vol. 4, No. 3/4, 2008

Abstract: In this paper, we study a comprehensive Supply Chain (SC) optimisation model that incorporates the uncertainty associated with demand, market price, supply and procurement costs. A number of correlated scenarios are built each of which represents a set of possible realisations of those random factors. Taking a stochastic programming approach, the variables and parameters are transformed into a Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) model, where the objective is to maximise the net present value of the cash flow for the whole SC over a finite planning horizon. The proposed model provides a useful tool for both strategic (e.g. locations and capacities of facilities) and operational (e.g. material flow) SC decision making.

Online publication date: Tue, 14-Oct-2008

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