Energy demand simulation for East European countries Online publication date: Tue, 03-Jul-2007
by Jonas Algirdas Kugelevicius, Algirdas Kuprys, Jonas Kugelevicius
International Journal of Global Energy Issues (IJGEI), Vol. 27, No. 3, 2007
Abstract: The analysis and created statistical models of energy consumption tendencies in the European Union (EU25), including new countries in transition, are presented. The EU15 market economy countries and countries in transition are classified into six clusters by relative indicators of Gross Domestic Product (GDP/P) and energy demand (W/P) per capita. The specified statistical models of energy intensity W/GDP non-linear stochastic tendencies have been discovered with respect to the clusters of classified countries. The new energy demand simulation models have been developed for the demand management in time–territory hierarchy in various scenarios of short-term and long-term perspective on the basis of comparative analysis methodology. The non-linear statistical models were modified to GDP, W/P and electricity (E/P) final consumption long-term forecasts for new associated East European countries and, as an example, for the Baltic Countries, including Lithuania.
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