Modelling drought as a climate change indicator in the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh Online publication date: Mon, 07-Oct-2024
by Noor-E-Ashmaul Husna; Sheikh Hefzul Bari; G.M. Tarekul Islam; A.K.M. Saiful Islam; Md. Manjurul Hussain
International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology (IJHST), Vol. 18, No. 4, 2024
Abstract: In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of meteorological drought in the southwest region of Bangladesh using the reconnaissance drought index (RDI) and the Mann-Kendall trend test. Furthermore, trends in the initial form of RDI (αk) are assessed using the Mann-Kendall and sequential Mann-Kendall tests to find any indication of climate change. The results show that the study area has experienced moderate to extreme droughts in the past, with an increasing frequency in recent years showing a seasonal nature. The negative trend in the annual and most seasonal standardised RDI (RDIst) series suggests that drought severity will increase in the future. At the same time, trends in the initial RDI (αk) suggest a potential change in the climate, especially after 1990. The resulting change in precipitation, or potential evapotranspiration (PET), may significantly affect surface water sources during dry seasons.
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