Forecasting new product growth
by Rajenlall Siriram
International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy (IJFIP), Vol. 16, No. 1, 2022

Abstract: The accuracy of seven growth curves, namely: linear regression, logistic regression, exponential, Bass, Logistic Pearl, Gompertz and Harvey, are tested. Ten products are selected with five product categories: 1) electronic devices (i.e., Global Apple iPhones, Global Apple tablets, Global Samsung smart phones, Global Samsung tablets); 2) social media applications (i.e., Facebook users, WhatsApp users, Twitter users); 3) streaming applications (i.e., Netflix users); 4) bitcoin users; 5) industrial robots. The curves are compared using analysis of variance. A panel of experts is used to critique the forecasting results and provide opportunities for improvement. Comparisons between the five product categories and the expert panel involvement provided interesting opportunities for further research. None of the curves appeared to be dominant.

Online publication date: Wed, 04-Jan-2023

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