Optimal policy modelling? An argumentation theory approach to making sense of economic modelling
by Patrick Klösel
International Journal of Pluralism and Economics Education (IJPEE), Vol. 13, No. 1, 2022

Abstract: The 'unrealistic-assumptions' puzzle and the 'prediction-failure' puzzle pose problems to the current practice of policy modelling in economics. The standard accounts by Friedman, McCloskey, Sugden and Mäki fail to provide a criterion to expose problematic idealisations. In this paper, I develop the 'models-as-argumentations' view which sensitises the modeller and practitioners to the fact that in order to derive policy recommendations, the adequacy-for-purpose of the model at hand has to be considered more carefully. Regarding economic models as complex argumentations allows for rational policy recommendations but imposes a certain degree of realism on the model's assumptions.

Online publication date: Thu, 28-Jul-2022

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