Quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on the spatial characteristics of drought hazard in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran
by Jaber Rahimi; Mohammad Khajeh; Abbas Alipour; Ommolbanin Bazrafshan
International Journal of Water (IJW), Vol. 14, No. 2/3, 2021

Abstract: In the present study the standard index annual precipitation (SIAP) and the drought hazard index (DHI) are used to investigate the frequency as well as the spatial extent of meteorological drought hazard in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran for the historical (1985-2010) and future (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) periods under different RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results indicate that, for the historical period, the most severe droughts have occurred in 2001, 2008, and 2010 (62.84, 43.93 and 45.73% of the study area). Furthermore, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the frequency of severe droughts would significantly increase and the most severe cases would occur in 2040s (almost in entire region). In addition, drought hazard assessment shows that, by the 2071-2100 period, except for the Southeastern parts, other regions would be identified as 'very-high-hazard' zone. These changes are important because they would negatively affect water resource management in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran.

Online publication date: Thu, 26-May-2022

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