Quantification and prediction of urban sprawl and surface temperature and assessment of their impacts on the environment: Case El Jadida (Morocco) Online publication date: Mon, 25-Apr-2022
by Ikram El Mjiri; Abdelmejid Rahimi; Abdelkrim Bouasria
International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW), Vol. 26, No. 4, 2022
Abstract: In this study, we aim to evaluate urban sprawl dynamics and surface temperature changes between 1985 and 2019, and to predict a future scenario of their evolution in 2027 and 2038 in great El Jadida city using Landsat images. We compared the resulting maps using spatio-temporal and statistical analysis. The results reveal that the built-up area increased by 5,121 ha (247%) between 1985 and 2019 (34 years). During the same period, the surface temperature was mutated in the distribution of different temperature intervals, marked essentially by an increase in the areas where the surface temperature was between 25°C and 30°C and a decrease in areas where the temperature was above 30°C. The overlapping of urban extension evolution and the surface temperature maps reveals the impact of urban extension on surface temperature spatial distribution. Finally, the Markov cellular automata model application allowed prediction in the map forms of future changes in 2027 and 2037.
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