Social, scientific and legal dimensions in Methuselah-span decision-making: the disposal of high level nuclear wastes
by P.F. Ricci, T.R. MacDonald
International Journal of Environment and Health (IJENVH), Vol. 1, No. 1, 2007

Abstract: Methuselah-span decision-making is an aspect of precautionary decision-making under uncertainty and the risk that requires studying the essential dimensionality of the decision over extremely long time horizons. We provide practical answers for assuring long-term regulatory compliance of engineered systems, using the example of Yucca Mountain Repository (YMR) for high-level nuclear waste. Although the physical, chemical and engineering dimensions of the YMR may have been sufficiently studied, we find that the social, economic and health dimensions were not. We demonstrate that this dimensionality cannot be assumed to be constant and that theoretically sound models exist to study these issues. We find that decision-theoretic criteria based on subjective utility theory axioms and probabilistic updating rules are essential to Methuselah-span regulatory decision-making under risk and uncertainty. We show that reliable and accountable environmental stewardship can be achieved without arbitrarily relying solely on technological, physical and chemical knowledge while holding constant technology, health and social dimensions.

Online publication date: Mon, 29-Jan-2007

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