The risk of war-through-misperception: systems-thinking-informed analyses of adversaries' weltanschauung as a safeguard against conflict Online publication date: Tue, 04-Jan-2022
by Simon Ashley Bennett
International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management (IJRAM), Vol. 24, No. 1, 2021
Abstract: The 1982 Falklands War and 1983 Exercise Able Archer near-miss were fomented by misperceptions. In each case, the misreading of policy and actions made conflict more likely. This paper uses social theories of risk to reveal the origins of each event. The case studies of the war and near-miss present alternative readings of protagonists' policies and actions. It is concluded that in each case, misperception increased the likelihood of conflict. It is suggested that had the British and Americans devoted more effort to understanding how their policies and actions were being read, the risk of conflict could have been reduced. It is suggested that intelligence-gathering grounded in strategic empathy could help reduce the risk of conflict in the Korean peninsula, Kashmir, Arabian Gulf, Black Sea, South China Sea and other flash-points and frozen conflicts. While resource-intensive and intellectually challenging, intelligence-gathering grounded in strategic empathy could make the world safer.
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