Analysis of energy consumption and forecasting sectoral energy demand in Pakistan
by Zulfiqar Ali; Faheemullah Shaikh; Laveet Kumar; Sadam Hussain; Zubair Ahmed Memon
International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy (IJETP), Vol. 17, No. 4, 2021

Abstract: The long-term forecasting of energy consumption has attained significant importance in fundamental research to provide sustainable solutions to the sectoral energy issues. An analysis of various factors that spur the overall and sectoral energy consumption has been modelled using logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) based on long-term energy alternatives planning (LEAP). The LMDI factors such as scale, structure and efficiency effects have been modelled in LEAP to forecast the overall and sectoral energy consumption. Various scenarios based on estimated LMDI factors have been modelled. It was observed that the scale and structure effects have generally caused an increase whereas the efficiency effect has caused a decrease in the overall and sectoral energy consumption. Furthermore, it was observed that the results reveal that the total energy consumption may reach 2,048,017.38 MTOE in 2050. Energy consumption in agriculture, industrial and services sector may reach 17,327.29 MTOE, 1,759,372.72 MTOE, 271,317.37 MTOE in 2050, respectively. From these findings, it is clear that the industrial sector consumes 86% of total energy. These results can help develop various policy guidelines for better management and operation of the energy sector in Pakistan.

Online publication date: Thu, 21-Oct-2021

The full text of this article is only available to individual subscribers or to users at subscribing institutions.

 
Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.

Pay per view:
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.

Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy (IJETP):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:

Username:        Password:          Forgotten your password?

Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.

If you still need assistance, please email subs@inderscience.com