Statistically downscaling climate change projection of precipitation and temperature over the semi-arid Yarmouk Basin, Jordan Online publication date: Fri, 30-Jul-2021
by Fayez A. Abdulla; Alham W. Al-Shurafat; Moayyad S. Shawaqfah
International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW), Vol. 24, No. 3/4, 2021
Abstract: The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) skills have been addressed in downscaling the climate change over the Yarmouk Basin, which is a semi-arid trans-boundary basin between Syria and Jordan. The scenarios used to drive SDSM are GHGs representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using CanESM2 GCM. The projected scenarios under RCP2.5, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the period 2011-2040 revealed an increase in the temperature by 0.9°C and decrease in the precipitation by about 9.5%, 12.7% and 12.9%, respectively. For the period 2041-2070, the results indicated an increase in temperature by 1.25°C, 1.54°C and 2.01°C, and decrease in precipitation by 16.8%, 18.6% and 18.5% under the three RCPs scenarios, respectively. Similarly, for the period 2071-2099, the results indicated an increase in temperature by 1.21°C, 1.79°C and 3.2°C and a decrease in precipitation by 19%, 25.5% and 31.6%, under the three RCPs scenarios, respectively.
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