Causality detection on US mutual fund movements using evolutionary subset time-series
by T.J. Brailsford, T.J. O'Neill, J. Penm
International Journal of Services and Standards (IJSS), Vol. 2, No. 4, 2006

Abstract: In this paper we develop an evolutionary kernel-based time update algorithm to recursively estimate subset discrete lag models (including fullorder models) with a forgetting factor and a constant term, using the exactwindowed case. The algorithm applies to causality detection when the true relationship occurs with a continuous or a random delay. We then demonstrate the use of the proposed evolutionary algorithm to study the monthly mutual fund data, which come from the 'CRSP Survivor-bias free US Mutual Fund Database'. The results show that the NAV is an influential player on the international stage of global bond and stock markets.

Online publication date: Mon, 24-Jul-2006

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