Macroeconomic dynamics in four selected new member states of the EU
by Pasquale Foresti; Ugo Marani; Giuseppe Piroli
International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies (IJEPEE), Vol. 8, No. 1, 2015

Abstract: In this paper, we employ a block structured near-vector autoregression in order to compare the reactions to euro area shocks in four new member states (Bulgaria, Hungary, Czech Republic and Romania) and in the old member states of the EU. The methodology adopted also allows us to study the effects of national economic policies and their reactions to national shocks in each new member state. Our analysis demonstrates that possible asymmetric effects of the ECB's monetary policy cannot be excluded and that the potential accession of the new member states may increase the level of fiscal indiscipline in the Eurozone.

Online publication date: Thu, 26-Mar-2015

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