Managing rare and undetectable events in risk assessment: the case of a satellite system launch project
by Cristiano Angeletti; Andrea Giacchero; Massimiliano M. Schiraldi
International Journal of Project Organisation and Management (IJPOM), Vol. 6, No. 1/2, 2014

Abstract: Assessing the wide diversity of risk types in large and complex projects using the traditional hyperbolic iso-risks curves may seem a simplistic and reductive approach, and evaluating the risk factor through the multiplication of likelihood and severity parameters results in defining as dangerous those risks that are associated either with rare but devastating consequences or with probable but minor effects. In this work, the authors aimed at focusing on those risks that, despite their low occurrence probability, may significantly compromise a project result. To this extent, a different formula has been used to compute the risk factor, keeping into account risk detectability and evaluating the potential consequences in four different domains (cost, time, performance, reputation). This approach has been validated on the case of a large industrial project related to the launch of an innovative mobile telecommunications system, collecting the experts' opinions in a primary Italian firm in aerospace industry.

Online publication date: Mon, 10-Mar-2014

The full text of this article is only available to individual subscribers or to users at subscribing institutions.

Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.

Pay per view:
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.

Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Project Organisation and Management (IJPOM):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:

    Username:        Password:         

Forgotten your password?

Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.

If you still need assistance, please email