The full text of this article
Integrating scenario planning and indicator-based early detection for scenario transfer
by Marion A. Weissenberger-Eibl, Klemens Joachim
International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning (IJTIP), Vol. 4, No. 4, 2008
Abstract: Traditional early detection systems are not well suited for detecting weak signals especially in highly complex environments. One problem is the fact that indicator based systems fail to deliver a holistic picture about the future. A second problem is the inflexibility in terms of time horizons of leading indicators. Scenarios are well suited to integrate information into holistic pictures on weak signals. While literature about methods of developing scenarios is relatively vast, only few approaches allow the systematic and continuous verification and observation of changes or developments. This paper describes a systematic approach for a scenario-based early detection system.
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