Title: Economic and mathematical modelling of food security in Ukraine

Authors: Oksana Kardash; Liubomyr Hladun

Addresses: Department of Economic Cybernetics, National University of Water and Environmental Engineering, Soborna str., 11, Rivne, 33000 Ukraine ' Department of Economic Cybernetics, National University of Water and Environmental Engineering, Soborna str., 11, Rivne, 33000 Ukraine

Abstract: The economic and mathematical model of food security in Ukraine was made in the form of regressive dependence of the integral index of food security on the singled out factors: provision, independence, physical accessibility, quality and safety. For this, a set of indicators of food security was replaced by fewer numbers of the most significant uncorrelated components (factors). A component analysis was taken as a scientific and methodological basis of this replacement. The results obtained from the verification of the model indicate its adequacy to statistical data, the significance of the model as a whole and its parameters, the close direct linear relationship between the factors and the integral index of food security. Validation of the constructed food security model was based on the method of element-by-element cross-validation.

Keywords: food security; food security indicators; economic and mathematical model; factor analysis; normalisation; factor loadings; principal components method; inverse factor axes; varimax normalised method; verification of the model; cross-validation statistics; Ukraine.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2017.087900

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2017 Vol.20 No.4, pp.285 - 304

Received: 06 Aug 2016
Accepted: 22 Nov 2016
Published online: 07 Nov 2017 *

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