Title: Precipitation change assessment over upper Bagmati river basin using regional bias corrected GCM data

Authors: Binaya Kumar Mishra

Addresses: United Nations University, Institute for the Advance Study of Sustainability, 5-53-70 Jingumae, Shibuya, Tokyo 150-8925, Japan

Abstract: Climate change impacts on precipitation pattern have been assessed over upper Bagmati river basin, Nepal. General circulation model (GCM) projections, which are widely used to assess climate change impacts, consist of significant biases due to oversimplification of the global climate system. Bias in daily GCM precipitation was corrected at grid cell scale using regional quantile-based bias correction technique. In this technique, bias correction pattern is established by comparing GCM grid data with nearby observation station data. Concepts of homogeneous precipitation regions were used to transfer statistical characteristics of nearby observation stations to ungauged cells. Calibration and validation of the regional bias correction technique was performed over 1979-2003. Comparative precipitation change assessments were carried out at annual, monthly and daily time scales considering bias corrected precipitation data of 1979-2003 and 2075-2099 periods respectively.

Keywords: bias correction; climate change; general circulation model; GCM; homogeneous precipitation regions; impact assessment.

DOI: 10.1504/IJW.2017.085889

International Journal of Water, 2017 Vol.11 No.3, pp.294 - 313

Received: 16 Jun 2016
Accepted: 08 Aug 2016
Published online: 17 Aug 2017 *

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