Title: Climate change fingerprints in lower Euphrates basin: climate and flow data trend analysis

Authors: Monzur A. Imteaz; Wesam Mahmood; Khaled A. Sagar; Abdullah Yilmaz

Addresses: Department of Civil and Construction Engineering, Faculty of Science, Engineering and Technology, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, VIC 3122, Australia ' Department of Civil and Construction Engineering, Faculty of Science, Engineering and Technology, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, VIC 3122, Australia ' Department of Civil and Construction Engineering, Faculty of Science, Engineering and Technology, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, VIC 3122, Australia ' Department of Civil Engineering, American University of Sharjah, P.O. Box 26666, Sharjah, UAE

Abstract: It is expected that climate change will affect the global weather, snow coverage and ice melting, sea level rise, hydrological cycle, agriculture and forests, ecosystems and health. One of the most affected areas of climate change is hydrology and water resources. In addition to adverse impact of climate change, increasing uncontrolled abstractions from the upper basins is likely to worsen the situation in the lower basins. Euphrates River, the longest in Western Asia, originates from the Armenian highlands and flows through Turkey, Syria and Iraq. The lower Euphrates River basin is predominantly in Iraq and likely to be affected by climate change. Owing to constant rise of water demands, to achieve a sustainable water management policy it is necessary to assess the impacts of climate change in the region. To assess trends of precipitation, temperature and streamflow to determine whether climate change impacts have already started in the lower Euphrates basin, two popular non-parametric trend analysis methods, Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests, were applied in this study. Based on the time series data, a significant rising trend in temperature and a significant decreasing trend in streamflow were observed, which would be an important perception for policy making pertaining to water resources management in the lower Euphrates basin.

Keywords: climate change; Euphrates River; trend analysis; temperature; precipitation; flow.

DOI: 10.1504/IJW.2017.085888

International Journal of Water, 2017 Vol.11 No.3, pp.279 - 293

Received: 09 Nov 2015
Accepted: 08 Aug 2016
Published online: 17 Aug 2017 *

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