Title: Global warming quantification by innovative trend template method

Authors: Zekâi Şen

Addresses: Hydraulics and Water Resources Division, Civil Engineering Faculty, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak 34469, Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract: As for the trend identification, the literature is full of quantitative studies, but with respect to two-probability distribution function (PDF) description remains at qualitative level. The main purpose of this paper is to convert the two-PDF description into quantitative form for objective and quantitative assessments. Such a goal is achieved on the basis of innovative trend templates, which indicate the arithmetic averages and the standard deviations of the two equal length halves of the given temperature record. Two-PDF explanations are represented by three combinations as changes in the arithmetic averages, standard deviations and in both parameters through their logical connections with the innovative template description. The application of the methodology is given for four mean annual temperature records from Istanbul City, Turkey. Global warming variations are described quantitatively as increases or decreases in the statistical parameters. The proposed methodology can be applied for any temperature record in the world.

Keywords: global warming; trend; probability; innovative; template; quantification; climate change.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2017.084783

International Journal of Global Warming, 2017 Vol.12 No.3/4, pp.499 - 512

Received: 18 Jul 2015
Accepted: 06 Sep 2015
Published online: 29 Jun 2017 *

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