Title: Assessment of climate change impacts on streamflows in Satluj river basin, India using SWAT model

Authors: Ayman T. Hamid; Mohammed Sharif; Boini Narsimlu

Addresses: Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Mosul, Mosul, Iraq ' Department of Civil Engineering, Jamia Millia Islamia, Central University, New Delhi, India ' ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad, India

Abstract: This paper describes the development and application of soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) to the simulation of stream flows at Bhakra - the major reservoir in the Satluj River basin in India. The basin lies in the Himalayan region, which is one of the most climatically sensitive areas in the world. PRECIS generated outputs of climate variables under IPCC A1B Scenarios for Indian conditions corresponding to the baseline (1961-1990), midcentury (2021-2050) and endcentury (2071-2098) have been used as an input to SWAT model. Results of simulation indicate that mean annual streamflows at Bhakra will likely increase by 12.8% for the midcentury, and 19.4% for the endcentury in response to climate change projections generated using PRECIS. For the January-February period, the streamflows are projected to increase by 49% for the midcentury and 21% for the end century relative to the base period. For the monsoonal season, both the midcentury and the endcentury periods are projected to experience an increase in streamflow of around 10% relative to the baseline period. The present study provides guidance in the understanding of climate change impacts on the hydrologic regime in a basin that is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

Keywords: soil and water assessment tool; SWAT; PRECIS; climate; streamflow; simulation; Satluj; India.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHST.2017.084140

International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 2017 Vol.7 No.2, pp.134 - 157

Received: 18 Sep 2015
Accepted: 20 Feb 2016
Published online: 14 May 2017 *

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