Title: Dynamic analysis of biomass resources with a global land use and energy model

Authors: Hiromi Yamamoto, Kenji Yamaji, Junichi Fujino

Addresses: Socio-economic Research Center, Central Research Institute of Electric, Power Industry (CRIEPI), 1-6-1 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100, Japan. Department of Electrical Engineering, School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113, Japan. Department of Electrical Engineering, School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113, Japan

Abstract: The purpose of the present study is to evaluate global bioenergy potential in consideration of land use competition using a global land use and energy model (GLUE) formulated with a system dynamics (SD) technique and a biomass balance table (BBT) that can show overall biomass flow and bioenergy potential quantitatively. Through a set of simulations, the following results were obtained: (1) The mature forest area in the developing region of the world will decrease from 2.1 billion hectares in 1990 to 0. 8 billion hectares in 2100, although we assume that perfect reforestation will be achieved by 2050; (2) There will be a large energy potential of biomass residues in the developing region. The maximum bioenergy potential in the developing region will be equal to 336 EJ/yr in 2100; (3) The global potential of energy crops will be strongly affected by variation of animal food demand in the developing region.

Keywords: bioenergy potential; biomass flow; biomass balance table, land use model; energy model; system dynamics.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.1998.000821

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 1998 Vol.11 No.1/2/3/4, pp.91-103

Published online: 24 Jul 2003 *

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