Title: Scenario analysis of the Jakarta Coastal Defence Strategy: sustainable indicators impact assessment

Authors: Akhmad Hidayatno; Aninditha Kemala Dinianyadharani; Aziiz Sutrisno

Addresses: Systems Engineering Modelling and Simulation Laboratory, Faculty of Engineering, Industrial Engineering Department, University of Indonesia, Depok, 16424, Indonesia ' Systems Engineering Modelling and Simulation Laboratory, Faculty of Engineering, Industrial Engineering Department, University of Indonesia, Depok, 16424, Indonesia ' Systems Engineering Modelling and Simulation Laboratory, Faculty of Engineering, Industrial Engineering Department, University of Indonesia, Depok, 16424, Indonesia

Abstract: As the capital of Indonesia, Jakarta suffers rising pressure on land availability due to its rapid economic and population growth. To sustain its growth, The Indonesian government planned a giant sea-wall land reclamation project as a primary solution in the North of Jakarta, named Jakarta Coastal Defense Strategy (JCDS) or also known at the national level as the National Capital Integrated Coastal Development (NCICD). The project mainly intended to provide new territory for residential and commercial area as well as protection against rising sea level. This paper aims to analyse the impact of the JCDS development in terms of Jakarta's economic, social and environmental indicators. The research employed system dynamics model to overview several plausible policy scenarios. The result shows trade-offs on different sustainable indicators based on corresponding scenarios which are beneficial for policy discussion.

Keywords: coastal defence; land subsidence; giant sea walls; groundwater reserves; land value; sustainable development; scenario analysis; Jakarta Coastal Defence Strategy; sustainable indicators; impact assessment; Indonesia; land reclamation; residential areas; commercial areas; rising sea levels; economic sustainability; social sustainability; environmental sustainability; system dynamics; modelling; flood protection; flooding.

DOI: 10.1504/IJISD.2017.080626

International Journal of Innovation and Sustainable Development, 2017 Vol.11 No.1, pp.37 - 52

Received: 21 Mar 2015
Accepted: 13 Oct 2015
Published online: 01 Dec 2016 *

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