Title: Using fuzzy logic to renewable energy forecasting: a case study of France
Authors: Mounir Ben Mbarek; Rochdi Feki
Department of Economics, University of Management and Economic Sciences of Sfax, Street of Airport km 4.5, LP 1088, 3018 Sfax, Tunisia
Commercial High School of Sfax, Airport Road Km 4,5 No. 3018, Sfax, BP 1081, Tunisia
Abstract: The orientation toward renewable energy consumption has led to decrease pollutants such as greenhouse gases that affect human health, natural ecosystems, agriculture, and earth temperature. Despite the growing literature on renewable energy sources and its relationship with other energetic and economic variables, precise estimation and forecasting renewable energy is crucial for the policy and decision-making process in the energy and economic sector. This study presents a new fuzzy logic approach to forecast renewable energy production in France on the basis of quarterly data from 2001Q1 to 2012Q3. The result of the proposed approach has been compared to that of the vector autoregressive (VAR) model and a neural network modelling, such as NARX approach.
Keywords: renewable energy forecasting; fuzzy logic; artificial neural networks; ANNs; VAR model; case study; France; modelling.
Int. J. of Energy Technology and Policy, 2016 Vol.12, No.4, pp.357 - 376
Date of acceptance: 18 Oct 2015
Available online: 28 Aug 2016