Title: China's energy outlook to the year 2030

Authors: Li Zhidong

Addresses: Department of Management and Information Systems Science, Nagaoka University of Technology, 1603-1 Kamitomioka-Machi, Nagaoka, 940-2188, Japan

Abstract: This study gives a long-term energy outlook in China by an econometric method. In the coming 30 years, China|s GDP growth will be around 7% annually, and the continuation of rapid economic growth could result in a number of difficult issues such as energy security, environment protection and CO₂ emission reductions. China should solve these problems through its own efforts. The first step is to establish an empowered actor, and then to establish a comprehensive and coherent energy strategic system. Energy conservation should be promoted as a national policy with the highest priority. Measures such as the development of renewable energy, diffusion of international commercialised cleaner coal technologies and establishing an emergency response system, should be conducted with higher priority. At the same time, international cooperation such as establishing an Energy Community in the Northeast Asian region, is also an important strategic option.

Keywords: 3Es-model; air pollution; China; CO₂ emissions reductions; carbon dioxide; energy forecast; energy demand; simulation; energy security; environmental pollution; environmental protection; international cooperation; macroeconomy; energy strategy; energy conservation; national policy; cleaner coal technologies; emergency response; regional energy.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.2005.007768

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 2005 Vol.24 No.3/4, pp.144 - 169

Published online: 15 Sep 2005 *

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