Title: Empirical background model of total ozone density over Bulgaria

Authors: Petya Kaleyna; Plamen Mukhtarov; Nikolay Miloshev

Addresses: National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Acad. G. Boncev str. bl. 3, Sofia 1113, Bulgaria ' National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Acad. G. Boncev str. bl. 3, Sofia 1113, Bulgaria ' National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Acad. G. Boncev str. bl. 3, Sofia 1113, Bulgaria

Abstract: A detailed analysis of the variations of the stratospheric and mesospheric ozone over Bulgaria, in the period 1996 to 2012, is presented in the article on the basis of ground and satellite measurements of the total ozone column (TOC). The dynamics of the most important components has been studied. Their mean values for the period and the existing long-term trends have been found. The time evolution of the most basic components of the seasonal course has been studied, including the existing long-term trends and their relations to the stratospheric temperature and quasi-biennial oscillation. Based on these studies and analyses, an empirical model for a daily forecast of TOC over Bulgaria has been created. The main aim of the model is monitoring of the ozone layer and, respectively, the biologically harmful ultraviolet radiation of the sun related to it which has an effect on human health and life.

Keywords: total ozone column; modelling; UV radiation; Bulgaria; total ozone density; ultraviolet radiation; ozone forecasting; ozone layer monitoring.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2015.077461

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2015 Vol.58 No.4, pp.307 - 320

Accepted: 02 Mar 2016
Published online: 01 Jul 2016 *

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