Title: Application of WRF-Chem to forecasting PM₁₀ concentration over Poland

Authors: Małgorzata Werner; Maciej Kryza; Hanna Ojrzyńska; Carsten Ambelas Skjøth; Kinga Wałaszek; Anthony J. Dore

Addresses: Department of Climatology and Atmosphere Protection, University of Wrocław, ul. Kosiby 8, 51-521 Wrocław, Poland; Institute of Science and the Environment, University of Worcester, Henwick Grove, WR2 6AJ, UK ' Department of Climatology and Atmosphere Protection, University of Wrocław, ul. Kosiby 8, 51-521 Wrocław, Poland ' Department of Climatology and Atmosphere Protection, University of Wrocław, ul. Kosiby 8, 51-521 Wrocław, Poland ' Institute of Science and the Environment, University of Worcester, Henwick Grove, WR2 6AJ, UK ' Department of Climatology and Atmosphere Protection, University of Wrocław, ul. Kosiby 8, 51-521 Wrocław, Poland ' Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, EH26 OQB, UK

Abstract: The meteorological and chemical transport model WRF-Chem was implemented to forecast PM₁₀ concentrations over Poland. WRF-Chem version 3.5 was configured with three one-way nested domains using the GFS meteorological data and the TNO MACC II emissions. The 48 hour forecasts were run for each day of the winter and summer period of 2014 and there is only a small decrease in model performance for winter with respect to forecast lead time. The model in general captures the variability in observed PM₁₀ concentrations for most of the stations. However, for some locations and specific episodes, the model performance is poor and the results cannot yet be used by official authorities. We argue that a higher resolution sector-based emission data will be helpful for this analysis in connection with a focus on planetary boundary layer processes in WRF-Chem and their impact on the initial distribution of emissions on both time and space.

Keywords: PM10; WRF-Chem; air quality forecasting; air pollution; Poland; planetary boundary layer; particulate matters; meteorological modelling; chemical transport modelling.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2015.077458

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2015 Vol.58 No.4, pp.280 - 292

Accepted: 02 Mar 2016
Published online: 01 Jul 2016 *

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