Title: Including an environmental quality index in a demographic model

Authors: María T. Sanz; Antonio Caselles; Joan C. Micó; David Soler

Addresses: Departament de Didàctica de les Matemàtiques, Universitat de València, Spain ' Departament de Matemàtica Aplicada, Universitat de València, Spain ' Departament de Matemàtica Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain ' Institut Universitari de Matemàtica Pura i Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain

Abstract: This paper presents a new well-being index which allows environmental quality to be measured through CO₂ emissions, renewable energies and nuclear power. Its formula derives from a geometric mean used to calculate which things in the human production system warm the planet and which do not. This index has been introduced into a gender-defined stochastic population dynamic mathematical model which measures well-being in a country. The main variables in this model are rates of death, birth, emigration and immigration, as well as three UN indices: Human Development Index, Gender Development Index and Gender Empowerment Index. This model has been extended with variables that allow an environmental quality evaluation, and it has been validated for Spain during the 2001-2010 period. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis has been carried on the simulated future trend (2011-2020) to see which environmental quality variables refer more to deaths, births or the Human Development Index.

Keywords: environmental quality index; demographic modelling; well-being measurement; sustainable development; sustainability; CO2; carbon dioxide; carbon emissions; renewable energy; nuclear power; nuclear energy; stochastic modelling; population dynamics; mathematical modelling; deaths; births; emigration; immigration; Human Development Index; Gender Development Index; Gender Empowerment Index; environmental quality evaluation; Spain.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2016.075448

International Journal of Global Warming, 2016 Vol.9 No.3, pp.362 - 396

Received: 04 Apr 2014
Accepted: 22 Oct 2014
Published online: 23 Mar 2016 *

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