Title: Evaluating the performance of WRF-CMAQ air quality modelling system in Bulgaria by means of the DELTA tool

Authors: Emilia Georgieva; Dimiter Syrakov; Maria Prodanova; Iglika Etropolska; Kiril Slavov

Addresses: National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH), Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAS), Tsarigradsko shose Blvd., 66, 1784 Sofia, Bulgaria ' National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH), Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAS), Tsarigradsko shose Blvd., 66, 1784 Sofia, Bulgaria ' National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH), Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAS), Tsarigradsko shose Blvd., 66, 1784 Sofia, Bulgaria ' National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH), Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAS), Tsarigradsko shose Blvd., 66, 1784 Sofia, Bulgaria ' National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH), Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAS), Tsarigradsko shose Blvd., 66, 1784 Sofia, Bulgaria

Abstract: Model evaluation is performed based on comparison of simulated and observed air pollution concentrations at 25 background stations of the Bulgarian national air quality monitoring network for the year 2013. The DELTA software package, developed within the forum for air quality modelling in Europe - FAIRMODE, is used to analyse model results focusing on maximum daily eight-hour mean ozone concentrations, hourly nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and daily particulate matter (PM₁₀) concentrations. Ozone is overestimated by 38%, minimum daily values are overestimated by a factor of 3. NO₂ and PM₁₀ are underestimated by a factor of, respectively, 4 and (5 to 9). The main DELTA model quality objective is respected at 26% of the stations for ozone, 58% of the stations for NO₂, and nowhere for PM₁₀. The best model performance is for ozone at rural sites during summer. Possible ways for improvement of model results are discussed.

Keywords: air quality modelling; statistical analysis; performance criteria; target diagram; Bulgaria; model evaluation; performance evaluation; model performance; WRF-CMAQ model; air pollution; DELTA model; simulation; air quality monitoring; nitrogen dioxide; NO2; particulate matter; PM10.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2015.074512

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2015 Vol.57 No.3/4, pp.272 - 284

Received: 03 Jan 2015
Accepted: 07 Oct 2015
Published online: 02 Feb 2016 *

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