Title: Patent-based technology forecasting: case of electric and hydrogen vehicle

Authors: Samira Ranaei; Matti Karvonen; Arho Suominen; Tuomo Kässi

Addresses: LUT School of Business and Management, Lappeenranta University of Technology, FI-53851 Lappeenranta, Finland ' LUT School of Business and Management, Lappeenranta University of Technology, FI-53851 Lappeenranta, Finland ' VTT Technical Research Center of Finland, FI-02044 VTT Espoo, Finland ' LUT School of Business and Management, Lappeenranta University of Technology, FI-53851 Lappeenranta, Finland

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of emerging technological paths in the automotive industry. Worldwide patent data from the years 1990-2010 was collected and utilised to define the technological life cycles of the electric and fuel cell vehicle technologies. The novelty of our study is practicing the patent analysis approach using text mining techniques to collect patents according to their concepts in the automotive industry. The patent analysis results are compared to existing literature and expert opinion studies in alternative fuel vehicles field. The findings suggest that the development of electric vehicles will be quicker with a higher R&D share, compared to hydrogen vehicles. By gathering data and insights, the paper also offers general views on future automotive technology trajectories.

Keywords: technology forecasting; patent analysis; text mining; technology life cycle; electric vehicles; hydrogen vehicles; zero emission vehicles; patents; automotive technology; automobile industry; technology trajectories.

DOI: 10.1504/IJETP.2016.074490

International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, 2016 Vol.12 No.1, pp.20 - 40

Received: 30 Dec 2014
Accepted: 31 May 2015
Published online: 01 Feb 2016 *

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