Title: General deterrence of drinking and driving: an evaluation of the effectiveness of three Ontario countermeasures

Authors: Qing Wu; Tracy Chen; Patrick A. Byrne; Jacob Larsen; Yoassry Elzohairy

Addresses: Safety Policy and Education Branch, Road User Safety Division, Ministry of Transportation Ontario, 1201 Wilson Avenue, Toronto, Ontario, M3M 1J8, Canada ' Safety Policy and Education Branch, Road User Safety Division, Ministry of Transportation Ontario, 1201 Wilson Avenue, Toronto, Ontario, M3M 1J8, Canada ' Safety Policy and Education Branch, Road User Safety Division, Ministry of Transportation Ontario, 1201 Wilson Avenue, Toronto, Ontario, M3M 1J8, Canada ' Safety Policy and Education Branch, Road User Safety Division, Ministry of Transportation Ontario, 1201 Wilson Avenue, Toronto, Ontario, M3M 1J8, Canada ' Safety Policy and Education Branch, Road User Safety Division, Ministry of Transportation Ontario, 1201 Wilson Avenue, Toronto, Ontario, M3M 1J8, Canada

Abstract: Objective: This work was conducted to evaluate the general deterrent effects of three Ontario drinking-and-driving countermeasures: the administrative driver's licence suspension (ADLS), the Back on Track (BOT) remedial education/treatment program, and the Ignition Interlock (II) program. Method: Both interrupted and forecasted time series analyses were used to determine whether each of the three programs led to decreases in the numbers of drinking drivers involved in collisions, or in the number of fatalities and injuries resulting from drinking-and-driving related collisions in Ontario. Results: Both the interrupted and forecasted time series analysis showed that introduction of ADLS was associated with a significant reduction in drinking-and-driving related fatalities and major injuries, providing a high degree of confidence that ADLS is an effective countermeasure. Neither the II nor the BOT programs appeared to produce significant general deterrence as measured by collision-related outcomes.

Keywords: drinking and driving; general deterrent effects; interrupted time series analysis; ADLS; administrative driver's licence suspension; ignition interlock; remedial measures; ARIMAX; Canada; drink-driving countermeasures; deterrence; remedial education; road safety; fatalities; injuries; collisions.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEME.2015.072554

International Journal of Engineering Management and Economics, 2015 Vol.5 No.3/4, pp.209 - 223

Received: 15 Jan 2014
Accepted: 09 Dec 2014
Published online: 19 Oct 2015 *

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