Title: Scenario-based life-cycle cost assessment of future air transport concepts

Authors: Michael Schmidt; Kay Olaf Ploetner; Gerald Öttl; Askin T. Isikveren; Mirko Hornung

Addresses: Visionary Aircraft Concepts, Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V., Willy-Messerschmitt-Straße 1, 85521 Ottobrunn, Germany ' Visionary Aircraft Concepts, Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V., Willy-Messerschmitt-Straße 1, 85521 Ottobrunn, Germany ' Institute of Aircraft Design, Technische Universität München, Boltzmannstr. 15, 85747, Garching, Germany ' Visionary Aircraft Concepts, Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V., Willy-Messerschmitt-Straße 1, 85521 Ottobrunn, Germany ' Institute of Aircraft Design, Technische Universität München, Boltzmannstr. 15, 85747, Garching, Germany

Abstract: The aviation industry stakeholders operate in a volatile environment. Because of the long life-cycles of aircraft, the consideration of future developments is vital for the life-cycle cost (LCC) assessment of aircraft concepts during the conceptual design phase. Using current LCC models, a multiplicity of assumptions about the future development manipulates the results to a varying degree. Hence, a link between scenarios, as an established method for describing possible future developments, and LCC models is necessary to determine the scenario-driven LCC parameters. In order to establish this link, the relations between the key scenario factors and scenario-driven LCC parameters were mapped out and regression equations based on historical values describe the dependencies. The resulting model allows the evaluation of aircraft concepts for a variety of future scenarios and with identifying cost drivers for different future environments, it is now possible to provide more accurate predictions about the future cost of flying.

Keywords: future air transport; scenarios; lifecycle costing; LCC; lifecycle assessment; LCA; causal mapping; direct operating cost; net present value; NPV; aircraft concepts; aviation management; commercial aviation; scenario planning; strategy development; future uncertainty; future challenges; future scenarios; cost of flying.

DOI: 10.1504/IJAM.2015.072378

International Journal of Aviation Management, 2015 Vol.2 No.3/4, pp.167 - 182

Published online: 11 Oct 2015 *

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