Title: Climate change, seasonal changes in cassava production and konzo epidemics

Authors: O.S.A. Oluwole

Addresses: Neurology Unit, Department of Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, 200212, Nigeria

Abstract: Konzo epidemics, which occur during droughts in Central, East, and Southern Africa, are attributed to exposure to cyanide from cassava foods. Severe droughts of global warming are predicted to increase cassava production. Trends and cyclical changes of temperature, precipitation, and cassava production were analysed, and a model was proposed to explain the impact of climate change on cassava production and cyclical konzo epidemics. Spectral analyses of temperature, precipitation and cassava production data from 1961 to 2012 were done. Temperature increased by 1.1°C in 52 years, while cassava production increased by 13% during low precipitation. Correlation of cyclical changes of precipitation and cassava production was 1 at periods of four and six years. Severe droughts of environmental warming will increase cyclical cassava production, water shortage, and cyclical konzo epidemics in areas of subsistence farming. Food and water programs are needed to control cyclical konzo epidemics.

Keywords: cyanide; seasonal changes; cassava production; konzo epidemics; climate change; global warming; Africa; severe droughts; temperature; precipitation; rainfall; subsistence farming; food programmes; water programmes.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2015.071576

International Journal of Global Warming, 2015 Vol.8 No.1, pp.18 - 30

Received: 30 Dec 2013
Accepted: 23 Feb 2014
Published online: 02 Sep 2015 *

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