Title: Building scenarios: a qualitative approach to forecasting market developments for ornamental plants

Authors: Giuseppe Di Vita; Valeria Allegra; Alfonso Silvio Zarbà

Addresses: Department of Agri-food and Environmental Systems Management, University of Catania, Viale Santa Sofia, 100, 95123, Catania, Italy ' Department of Agri-food and Environmental Systems Management, University of Catania, Viale Santa Sofia, 100, 95123, Catania, Italy ' Department of Agri-food and Environmental Systems Management, University of Catania, Viale Santa Sofia, 100, 95123, Catania, Italy

Abstract: In order to highlight some of peculiarities of mechanisms and dynamics of the ornamental plant market this paper presents the first use of the Delphi method for a scenario analysis of ornamental plant production. The present study aims to forecast the evolution and expansion of the ornamental plant market and to identify future scenarios for the development of Italian companies involved in the ornamental pot plant industry. The results of the survey highlight a considerable agreement among experts that production and trade in the near future will remain fairly stable. Despite the increased interest of new and emerging markets in ornamental plants, not all producers will benefit from this development. Our findings predict a reduction in the income of Italian ornamental plant producers due to decreased prices, accompanied by a progressive exit from the market of small- and medium-sized enterprises unable to adequately innovate and adopt the optimal supply chain strategies required by current markets.

Keywords: Delphi method; scenario development; ornamental plant industry; market evolution; scenarios; forecasting; market developments; ornamental plants; Italy; pot plants; income reduction; price falls; small and medium-sized enterprises; SMEs; innovation; supply chain strategies; supply chain management; SCM.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBG.2015.071152

International Journal of Business and Globalisation, 2015 Vol.15 No.2, pp.130 - 151

Received: 29 Jan 2015
Accepted: 22 Feb 2015
Published online: 13 Aug 2015 *

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