Title: Modelling of Turkey's net energy consumption using artificial neural network

Authors: Adnan Sozen, Erol Arcaklioglu, Mehmet Ozkaymak

Addresses: Technical Education Faculty, Mechanical Education Department, Gazi University, Teknikokullar, Ankara 06503, Turkey. ' Engineering Faculty, Mechanical Engineering Department, Kirikkale University, Kirikkale 71450, Turkey. ' Technical Education Faculty, Mechanical Education Department, Karaelmas University, Karabuk, Turkey

Abstract: The main goal of this study is to develop the equations for forecasting net energy consumption (NEC) using artificial neural network (ANN) technique in order to determine the future level of the energy consumption in Turkey. Two different models were used in order to train the neural network: population, gross generation, installed capacity and years are used in input layer of network (Model 1); energy sources are used in input layer of network (Model 2). The NEC is in output layer for two models. R² values for training data are equal to 0.99944 and 0.99913, for Model 1 and Model 2, respectively. Similarly, R² values for testing data are equal to 0.997386 and 0.999558 for Model 1 and Model 2, respectively. According to the results, the NEC prediction using ANN technique will be helpful in developing highly applicable and productive planning for energy policies.

Keywords: energy sources; net energy consumption; gross generation; estimation; artificial neural networks; Turkey; energy forecasting.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCAT.2005.006944

International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology, 2005 Vol.22 No.2/3, pp.130 - 136

Published online: 26 Apr 2005 *

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