Article: Risk of salmonellosis from the consumption of Irish fresh pork sausages Journal: International Journal of Computer Aided Engineering and Technology (IJCAET) 2015 Vol.7 No.2 pp.287 - 299 Abstract: A second-order simulation model was built to estimate the risk of Salmonella typhimurium associated with the consumption of Irish fresh pork sausages using the results from a previous exposure assessment model and an Irish consumption database. To select appropriate hazard characterisation models, an appraisal of the current dose-response models fitted from available feeding trials data and outbreaks data was conducted. Using an infection and an illness dose-response model of the exponential type, for an infection end-point, the mean annual risk in a consumer of Irish sausage was estimated to be 8.54 × 10−5 or 192.8 expected infections per year (95% CI: 24-695), while for an illness end-point, the risk parameters were lower at 7.68 × 10−6 or 18.0 expected cases per year (95% CI: 2-66). While results of the model highlighted the importance of the consumer education through advice of sufficient cooking and basic instructions regarding cold storage and shelf life, with some 'strong' assumptions, it was further estimated that the fresh pork sausage may have a plausible contribution of 30% to the total cases of salmonellosis within the pork sources. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: Risk of salmonellosis from the consumption of Irish fresh pork sausages

Authors: Ursula Gonzales-Barron; Francis Butler

Addresses: UCD School of Biosystems Engineering, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland; CIMO Mountain Research Centre, Polytechnic Institute of Braganza, Campus de Santa Apolónia, Bragança, Portugal ' UCD School of Biosystems Engineering, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland

Abstract: A second-order simulation model was built to estimate the risk of Salmonella typhimurium associated with the consumption of Irish fresh pork sausages using the results from a previous exposure assessment model and an Irish consumption database. To select appropriate hazard characterisation models, an appraisal of the current dose-response models fitted from available feeding trials data and outbreaks data was conducted. Using an infection and an illness dose-response model of the exponential type, for an infection end-point, the mean annual risk in a consumer of Irish sausage was estimated to be 8.54 × 10⁻⁵ or 192.8 expected infections per year (95% CI: 24-695), while for an illness end-point, the risk parameters were lower at 7.68 × 10⁻⁶ or 18.0 expected cases per year (95% CI: 2-66). While results of the model highlighted the importance of the consumer education through advice of sufficient cooking and basic instructions regarding cold storage and shelf life, with some 'strong' assumptions, it was further estimated that the fresh pork sausage may have a plausible contribution of 30% to the total cases of salmonellosis within the pork sources.

Keywords: risk assessment; modelling; simulation; consumption database; dose response models; hazard characterisation; infection; illness; Salmonella sisks; Irish pork sausages; Irelend; fresh pork sausages; consumer education; cooking time; cold storage; shelf life; salmonellosis.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCAET.2015.068333

International Journal of Computer Aided Engineering and Technology, 2015 Vol.7 No.2, pp.287 - 299

Published online: 31 Mar 2015 *

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Title: Risk of salmonellosis from the consumption of Irish fresh pork sausages

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