Title: Prediction of game performance in Australian football using heart rate variability measures

Authors: David Cornforth; Piers Campbell; Keith Nesbitt; Dean Robinson; Herbert F. Jelinek

Addresses: Applied Informatics Research Group, School of DCIT, University of Newcastle, Callaghan 2308, NSW, Australia ' Applied Informatics Research Group, School of DCIT, University of Newcastle, Callaghan 2308, NSW, Australia ' Applied Informatics Research Group, School of DCIT, University of Newcastle, Callaghan 2308, NSW, Australia ' Corio Bay Sports Medicine Centre, Geelong, VIC, Australia ' Centre for Research in Complex Systems, School of Community Health, Charles Sturt University, P.O. Box 789, Albury, NSW 2640, Australia; Department of Biomedical Engineering, Khalifa University of Science, Technology and Research, Abu Dhabi, UAE

Abstract: In-match player performance, measured by data from Geographical Positioning System (GPS) devices, was predicted with a correlation coefficient of greater than 0.7. Predictions were based on heart rate variability measures and used advanced regression techniques based on machine learning. These techniques included methods for the selection of variables to be included in the regression study. Results indicate that variable selection using a wrapper subset method with a genetic algorithm outperformed both principal components analysis and the default method of using all variables. The success of prediction of match performance suggests a potential for new tools to assist the team coach in player selection and management of player training. This work also provides the possibility for a training programme to be adjusted specifically to meet the challenges of the size of the playing field and the temperature likely to be encountered on the day of the match.

Keywords: heart rate variability; HRV; medical data analysis; performance prediction; regression; game performance; Australian football; Australia; geographical positioning system; GPS; machine learning; genetic algorithms; principal component analysis; PCA; player selection; player training; training management; Australian rules football; Aussie rules; heart rate variation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSISE.2015.067072

International Journal of Signal and Imaging Systems Engineering, 2015 Vol.8 No.1/2, pp.80 - 88

Received: 03 Jan 2013
Accepted: 10 Nov 2013
Published online: 25 Jan 2015 *

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