Title: Stochastic modelling of rainfall and runoff phenomenon: a time series approach review

Authors: Rashmi Nigam; Sudhir Nigam; Sushil K. Mittal

Addresses: Department of Applied Mathematics, University Institute of Technology, Rajeev Gandhi Technical University (RGTU), Bhopal, M.P., India ' Department of Civil Engineering, Lakshmi Narain College of Technology and Science (LNCTS), Raisen Road, Bhopal, M.P., India ' Department of Civil Engineering, Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, M.O., India

Abstract: Rainfall-runoff simulation and forecasting is essential for disaster management, planning, designing and operation of water resource projects. This paper reviews the till date development and current status of time series analysis-based modelling and simulation attempts of rainfall-runoff phenomenon. The discussion starts with the historical demand to forecast the chaotic natural process of rainfall-runoff. The study reveals earlier attempts for simulation of the rainfall-runoff event using regression, autoregressive, moving average, and combinations of these methods. The paper further focuses in detail about the advanced method that is Box Jenkins techniques and its derivatives (e.g. SARIMA, PARMA, TRANSFER FUNCTION etc.), for simulation of river rainfall and runoff with better accuracy. Attempt is made to include up-to-date studies for forecasting of rainfall and associated runoff using time series methods from different parts of the world and for various applications.

Keywords: rainfall runoff; stochastic modelling; hydrology; forecasting; transfer function; time series analysis; simulation; disaster management; emergency management; water resources; precipitation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHST.2014.066437

International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 2014 Vol.4 No.2, pp.81 - 109

Published online: 31 Dec 2014 *

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