Title: Simulation-based characterisation of critical infrastructure system resilience

Authors: Boris Petrenj; Paolo Trucco

Addresses: Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano, Milan, Italy ' Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano, Milan, Italy

Abstract: This paper presents a simulation-based approach to the resilience analysis of critical infrastructures systems, making possible the characterisation of the structural resilience features of the system and estimation of the benefits that are derived from improved resilience practices, i.e., preparedness or responsiveness, due to enhanced information-sharing processes among the actors. Resilience characterisation is composed of assessment of the node vitality [i.e., the missed service demand (MSD) generated at the system level] and agility (i.e., the sensitivity of system performance to an improved response time in the node). Scenario analysis is subsequently used to simulate different strategies intended to minimise the impacts of large events. The transportation system in the metropolitan area of Milan is used for this purpose; more specifically, a reduction of disruption response times in agile nodes was simulated according to a real snowfall scenario.

Keywords: critical infrastructures; resilience analysis; simulation; case study; critical infrastructure resilience; system resilience; structural resilience; information sharing; node vitality; missed service demand; MSD; node agility; system performance; scenario analysis; transport networks; disruption response times; agile nodes; vital nodes; snowfall; snow; critical infrastructure disruption; Italy.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCIS.2014.066366

International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 2014 Vol.10 No.3/4, pp.347 - 374

Received: 08 Nov 2013
Accepted: 05 Mar 2014
Published online: 14 Jan 2015 *

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