Title: Modelling and control of multi-risk behaviours using probabilistic discrete event systems

Authors: Feng Lin; Xinguang Chen; Wen Chen

Addresses: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI 48202, USA ' Department of Epidemiology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610, USA ' Division of Engineering Technology, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI 48202, USA

Abstract: In this paper, we introduce a new approach to model multiple social and health risk behaviours using probabilistic discrete event systems (PDES) for control and prevention. We develop a method to model the transition of individual risk behaviour as a PDES process. The parameters of the PDES model can be obtained from either longitudinal survey data or cross-sectional survey data. We then use parallel composition to combine the models for individual behaviours to establish PDES model for multi-risk behaviour. With the established PDES models, Mason's gain formula developed in engineering can be applied to investigate the impacts of control and prevention on multi-risk behaviours and to evaluate the effectiveness of control and prevention strategies.

Keywords: multi-risk behaviours; PDES models; control and prevention; Mason's formula; modelling; probabilistic discrete event systems; social risks; health risks; risk behaviour.

DOI: 10.1504/IJAAC.2014.065452

International Journal of Automation and Control, 2014 Vol.8 No.4, pp.295 - 308

Received: 14 May 2014
Accepted: 01 Jul 2014
Published online: 31 Oct 2014 *

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