Title: Objective evaluation of statistical models for next day ozone forecasting

Authors: F. Lena, F. Desiato

Addresses: National Agency for Environmental Protection (ANPA), Via Brancati 48, 00144 Roma, Italy. National Agency for Environmental Protection (ANPA), Via Brancati 48, 00144 Roma, Italy

Abstract: Different stochastic auto-regressive non-stationary models with exogenous inputs have been identified and validated in order to predict maximum ozone concentration expected for the next day. Selected inputs were one-day forecasted meteorological variables and average concentrations of ozone precursors (compounds involved in ozone formation chemical reactions, i.e. NO, NO2

Keywords: auto-regressive models with exogenous inputs; ozone forecasting; photochemical pollution; stationary and non-stationary grey-box models.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2001.000644

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2001 Vol.16 No.1/2/3/4/5/6, pp.495-506

Published online: 07 Jul 2003 *

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