Title: K-waves, asset performance and industrial sector favourability
Author: Olli-Pekka Hilmola
Address: Lappeenranta University of Technology, Kouvola Research Unit, Prikaatintie 9, FIN-45100 Kouvola, Finland
Abstract: There exist very limited amount of research conducted from the relationship between stock markets and Kondratieff economic long-waves. In this research, we examine this relation with longitudinal data, not using decades, but rather century long series. Initial analysis shows significantly better returns on using K-waves in investment decisions in asset classes such as equities, oil and gold. Our research is unique in a sense that it argues stock markets to have cycles, and in turn suggesting that there exist periods when investors should be active within these (correspondingly industries being active in trendy sectors), but on the other hand, avoid them in economic long-wave downswings. Gold and oil are proposed to offer safety and yield in K-wave downturns. This has potential implications on industrial sector renewal, and it is proposed that world population driven industries will do well in the forthcoming decades.
Keywords: stock markets; Kondratieff; economic long waves; Dow Jones; CPI; consumer price index; oil; gold; industrial development; K-waves; investment decisions; equities; asset performance; K-wave downturns; industrial sector renewal.
Int. J. of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 2013 Vol.9, No.4, pp.271 - 290
Available online: 28 Apr 2014