Title: Exploring expert confidence in cost estimates for nuclear power engineering, procurement and construction projects - a survey of nuclear industry experts

Authors: Sola M. Talabi; Paul Fischbeck

Addresses: Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA, 15101, USA ' Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA, 15101, USA

Abstract: Nuclear power is currently undergoing a renaissance because of increasing energy demand and the ability of nuclear power to provide low-emissions, base-load power supply. However, the industry has been historically plagued with considerable technology deployment risks, with project cost and schedule overruns presenting a significant risk to nuclear plant investors. Considerable uncertainties exist with new nuclear power deployment, and there is a lack of a standardised industry approach to characterising, assessing and acting on these uncertainties to limit the variability on eventual project performance. This study identifies the major causes of risks in nuclear power plant deployment projects, and the role of project risk-management, as defined as the framework for creating awareness, assessment and action on risk. The study is performed through both a literature review of nuclear power plant project risk documentation, interviews with subject matter experts and a survey of a cross section of nuclear industry experts.

Keywords: risk management; nuclear power plants; NPP construction; nuclear energy; engineering procurement construction; EPC; energy infrastructure; asset management; expert confidence; cost estimation; construction projects; nuclear industry experts; project risk.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSEAM.2013.060473

International Journal of Strategic Engineering Asset Management, 2013 Vol.1 No.4, pp.374 - 389

Published online: 26 Jul 2014 *

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