Title: Qualitative decision-making model of investment into start-up companies
Authors: Alzbeta Kubickova; Mirko Dohnal; Karel Doubravský
Faculty of Business and Management, Brno University of Technology, Kolejni 2906/4, 612 00 Brno, Czech Republic
Faculty of Business and Management, Department of Economics, Brno University of Technology, Kolejni 2906/4, 612 00 Brno, Czech Republic
Faculty of Business and Management, Department of Informatics, Brno University of Technology, Kolejni 2906/4, 612 00 Brno, Czech Republic
Abstract: The investments into start-up companies are often unique. The results are difficult to forecast. These investments are based on sparse and vague information, which is why statistical modelling methods are not applicable. Therefore, this paper applies qualitative modelling and qualitative decision tree to support investment decision-making into start-up companies. A team of experts was asked to describe start-up investment and 12 characteristics (variables) were chosen, e.g., profitability, market potential, etc. These variables were divided to two sets, variables that are under the management control - decision variables - and variables that are not under managerial control - lottery variables. The 12-dimensional models were developed; a common-sense analysis identifies 18 qualitative equationless relations and the model generated 20 scenarios. A subset of scenarios was transferred into a qualitative decision tree. The tree was evaluated to identify the best possible sequence of decisions using heuristics based on common-sense reasoning.
Keywords: start-ups; qualitative decision making; decision tree; heuristics; common-sense reasoning; start-up investment; qualitative modelling; investment decisions.
Int. J. of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 2013 Vol.9, No.3, pp.165 - 180
Available online: 05 Mar 2014