Title: Studies on early warning model about university sudden mass incidents based on danger theory

Authors: Weige Ji; Yanan Wang

Addresses: School of Economy and Management, Hebei University of Science and Technology, Shijiazhuang 050018, China ' School of Economy and Management, Hebei University of Science and Technology, Shijiazhuang 050018, China

Abstract: This paper analysed the generating mechanism of university sudden mass incidents based on danger theory, and quantified the key points in the process, such as risk points, danger points and danger zone, especially determined the danger point by ACD model, which was used in ultra-high-frequency financial time series analysis, and then proposed early warning model implementation steps. In the end, it analysed the feasibility and effectiveness of the model by an example.

Keywords: mass incidents; risk points; danger points; danger zone; early warning models; modelling; universities; danger theory; time series analysis; emergency management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMIC.2013.055913

International Journal of Modelling, Identification and Control, 2013 Vol.20 No.1, pp.56 - 63

Published online: 27 Sep 2014 *

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