Title: Operating risk assessment for underground metal mining systems: overview and discussion

Authors: Serguei A. Kenzap; Vassilios N. Kazakidis

Addresses: School of Engineering, Laurentian University, Sudbury, P3E 2C6 Ontario, Canada ' School of Engineering, Laurentian University, Sudbury, P3E 2C6 Ontario, Canada

Abstract: This paper provides an overview and discussion of important aspects of risk analysis that are relevant to underground metal mines operating risks assessment and the impact on mining project economics, using stochastic computer modelling, in Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis. Mine operating risk assessment is presented in an overview of available risks evaluation tools that have been developed in other than mining engineering disciplines. Links are established between the decision-making process for mine design alternatives evaluation and the risk based mine planning process, with emphasis to the need of introduction of quality and flexibility in mine design process. Finally, challenges of risk-based mine planning and design implementation are discussed and the call for a systems risk-optimisation analysis approach is made.

Keywords: operating risk assessment; subjective probabilities; underground mining; metal mines; discounted cash flow; DCF analysis; Monte Carlo simulation; flexibility; real options; mining projects; mine planning; expert based decision making; stochastic modelling; mine design; design evaluation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMME.2013.053167

International Journal of Mining and Mineral Engineering, 2013 Vol.4 No.3, pp.175 - 200

Received: 22 Jun 2012
Accepted: 20 Dec 2012
Published online: 02 Aug 2013 *

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