Title: Model analyses of long and short term pollution emission reduction

Authors: Sadik Bekteshi; Skender Kabashi; Ivo Šlaus; Aleksander Zidanšek; Kushtrim Podrimqaku

Addresses: Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Prishtina, Rr. 'Nëna Terezë' p.n., 10000 Prishtina, Kosovo. ' Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Prishtina, Rr. 'Nëna Terezë' p.n., 10000 Prishtina, Kosovo. ' R. Bošković Institute, Bijenička 54, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia. ' Jožef Stefan International Postgraduate School, J. Stefan Institute, Jamova 39, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia; Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Maribor, 2000 Maribor, Slovenia. ' Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Prishtina, Bregu i Diellit, p.n., 10000 Prishtina, Kosovo

Abstract: Climate change is influenced not only by the emissions of greenhouse gases, but also by the emissions of air pollutants which influence each other through complex interactions in the atmosphere. Reducing emissions could be one way to react and prevent negative impacts from climate change. Because these reductions must take place in the face of economic growth, there is a disagreement about the concrete time and the rate of the pollution emission reduction (PER). By modelling of short and long term emission reduction scenarios, the authors analyse responding of: pollution, population, non-renewable resources and industrial output of post-2015, that could establish a foundation for undertaking actions to mitigate climate change, taking into account both their environmental and economic consequences. In long term scenarios, the values of the factors discussed depend mainly on the year when the pollution reduction is achieved, and very little on the rate of emission reduction. From the analysis of the results straightforwardly follows that in any climate stabilisation strategy, the early action in reducing emission is a more important element than the rate of its decrease.

Keywords: pollution emissions; emissions reduction; modelling; sustainable development; sustainability; climate change; air pollution; pollution reduction; climate stabilisation strategy.

DOI: 10.1504/IJESD.2012.050464

International Journal of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2012 Vol.11 No.3, pp.293 - 303

Published online: 30 Aug 2014 *

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